NFL Upset Picks
Get the latest NFL upset picks from our computer model for this week
NFL Upset Picks for NFL Week 1
Our team of experts analyzes the data to bring you the best NFL upset picks for every week of the 2023 season. We love a good upset and we are here to highlight which teams our model thinks are the hungriest dogs for this week.
Learn more about NFL upset picks below and find out how our upset pick record is trending this season.
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NFL Upset Pick of the Week
Check back for week 1 when we have our NFL upset pick of the week ready. We will give full analysis for our upset pick of the week and let everyone know how to best take advantage.
What is an NFL Upset Pick?
An upset pick in the NFL is a bet on an underdog team to win a game. The underdog is the team that is not expected to win, while the favorite is the team that is expected to win. An upset pick is considered to be a high-risk, high-reward bet, as it is more likely to lose than to win. However, if the underdog does win, the payout can be very large.
What is an Underdog?
In sports betting, an underdog is a the team that is not expected to win the game. The opposite of an underdog is a favorite. The favorite is the team or individual that is expected to win.
There are a few easy ways to tell which team is the underdog. When looking at a moneyline bet, the team with the higher paying odds is the underdog. For example, if the moneyline odds for a game are +150 for one team and -200 for the other, the underdog is the team that is listed at +150
When looking at a spread bet, the team with the plus sign (+) is the underdog. For example, if the spread for a game is +/-3.5 the team that is +3.5 is the underdog
NFL Upset Predictions
We offer NFL upset predictions by simulating every game using a variety of factors, including team strength, injuries, and weather conditions. This creates a score prediction for each game. We then use all of the data from the simulations, as well as our own expert analysis, to decide if we believe an underdog will win the game straight up.
Why do Underdogs Play Better at Home?
- Home-field advantage: Home-field advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in sports. It is believed that home teams have a number of advantages, such as familiarity with the stadium, crowd support, and referee bias.
- Motivation: Underdogs are often more motivated than favorites. They have something to prove, and they know that they are not expected to win. This can give them an edge in terms of intensity and focus.
- Comfort: Underdogs are typically more comfortable playing at home. They know the stadium, the field, and the fans. This can give them a mental edge over the visiting team.
- Travel: Traveling can be a disadvantage for visiting teams. They may have to adjust to a different time zone, climate, and food. This can take a toll on their physical and mental condition.
Of course, there are no guarantees in sports. Underdogs can win on the road, and favorites can lose at home. However, the factors listed above can give underdogs an advantage in home games.
Tips for Picking Upsets in the NFL
There is no surefire way to pick upsets in the NFL, unless you can predict the future or have the Sports Encyclopedia from Back to the Future. However, there are some helpful tips and tricks that can help you understand why upsets happen in the NFL and how you can spot them before next week’s games.
- Do your research. This is the most important tip. You need to understand the teams involved, their recent form, and any injuries or suspensions. You should also look at the betting odds and see what the experts are saying.
- Look for value. Don’t just bet on every underdog. You need to find teams that are undervalued by the betting market. This means that you are getting a good payout if they win.
- Be patient. Don’t expect to hit every NFL upset pick. There will be times when you lose. The key is to be patient and keep betting on underdogs that you believe in.
Situational Tips on How to Spot Upset Picks
- Look for teams that are playing at home. Home-field advantage is a real thing in the NFL. Teams that play at home tend to win more often than teams that play on the road.
- Look for teams that are coming off a bye week. Teams that have a bye week tend to be well-rested and ready to play. They are also more likely to be motivated, as they have had an extra week to prepare for their opponent.
- Look for teams that are playing against a division rival. Division games are usually very competitive. Teams are always playing for pride and bragging rights, so they tend to give it their all.
- Look for teams that are playing with a chip on their shoulder. Teams that have something to prove are often more motivated to win. This could be a team that has been overlooked by the media or a team that is coming off a bad loss.
- Injuries and suspensions: Injuries and suspensions can have a big impact on the outcome of a game. If a team is missing key players, they are more likely to lose.
- Matchup: Sometimes, the matchup between two teams can be a factor in an upset. For example, if a team is facing a defense that is weak against the run, they may be able to exploit that weakness and win the game.
Tips for Betting on NFL Underdogs
There are a few situations when it is smart to bet on an NFL underdog. First, if the underdog is getting good odds relative to their chances of winning, it is a good bet. This means looking for teams that are playing well but are being overlooked by the oddsmakers.
Betting on a road underdog is usually a better bet than betting on a home favorite. Home teams in the NFL win about 60% of the time, so betting on home favorites is usually a losing proposition. If you’re going to bet on an underdog, it’s usually better to bet on a road underdog.
When the underdog has a good recent record, it is a good bet. If a team has been winning consistently, they’re more likely to keep winning.
Anytime the underdog has a good matchup, it is a good bet! If a team is facing a team that they match up well against, they’re more likely to win.
Of course, there is no guarantee that an underdog will win any given game. However, by following these tips, you can increase your chances of winning when you bet on underdogs in the NFL.
Fading the Public for Upset Picks
Public betting can correlate to upset picks in a few ways. First, if the public is heavily betting on the favorite, it can mean that the underdog is undervalued by the betting market. This means that there is a good chance that the underdog will win, the upset will happen, and bettors are getting a better payout than they should be.
Second, public betting can influence the way that the game is played. If the public is heavily betting on the favorite, the underdog may be more motivated to win. Now that sports betting is legal, all pregame shows include the spreads ,and hell even the players are betting on the games! This can lead to the underdog playing better than they normally would, and it can also lead to the favorite playing worse than they normally would.
Finally, public betting can affect the line. If the public is heavily betting on the favorite, the line may move in favor of the underdog. This means that the underdog will need to win by a larger margin in order to cover the spread.
Of course, public betting is not always a reliable indicator of who will win a game. There have been many times when the public has bet heavily on the favorite, only for the underdog to win. However, public betting can be a helpful tool for identifying potential upset picks.
Examples of Public Betting & Upsets
Here are some examples of how public betting has correlated to upset picks in the NFL:
- In 2018, the Jacksonville Jaguars were 10-point underdogs against the New England Patriots. The public was heavily betting on the Patriots, but the Jaguars won the game 24-20.
- In 2017, the New York Jets were 7.5-point underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The public was heavily betting on the Steelers, but the Jets won the game 21-17.
- In 2016, the Minnesota Vikings were 7-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. The public was heavily betting on the Packers, but the Vikings won the game 23-10.
As you can see, public betting has been a factor in some of the biggest upsets in NFL history. If you are looking for potential upset picks, first check our upset picks above, but then it is worth considering the public betting trends.
How Common are Upsets in the NFL?
Upsets are relatively common in the NFL. According to a study by FiveThirtyEight, about 35% of NFL games are upsets, meaning that the underdog wins. This means that there is a good chance of an upset happening in any given game.
There are a few reasons why upsets are so common in the NFL. First, the NFL is a very competitive league. There are no easy games in the NFL, and even the best teams can lose to the worst teams on any given day.
Second, the NFL is a very unpredictable league. There are so many factors that can affect the outcome of a game, such as injuries, weather, and momentum. This makes it difficult to predict who will win any given game, even if one team is heavily favored.
Finally, the NFL is a very high-scoring league. This means that even if the underdog is trailing by a few points at halftime, they still have a chance to win the game. This is because the NFL is a game of momentum, and a few big plays can change the course of a game.
Some upset picks shock the world, while other upsets are less surprising. For example, the Minnesota Vikings’ upset of the Green Bay Packers in the 2017 NFC Championship Game was not all that surprising as the Vikings were only 7-point underdogs, and they had beaten the Packers in the regular season.
No matter how surprising an upset pick is, it is always exciting to see an underdog win. Upsets are a reminder that anything is possible in the NFL, and they make the game even more unpredictable and exciting.
When do most NFL Upsets Happen?
Upsets are most common in the NFL during the early weeks of the season. This is because teams are still trying to figure out who they are and what they are good at. As the season goes on, teams become more settled and it becomes more difficult for underdogs to pull off upsets.
According to the study by FiveThirtyEight we already mentioned, the week with the most upsets in the NFL is Week 1. In Week 1, about 40% of games are upsets. The weeks with the second and third most upsets are Week 2 and Week 3, respectively. In Week 2, about 37% of games are upsets, and in Week 3, about 35% of games are upsets.
There are a few reasons why upsets are more common in the early weeks of the season, but the biggest reason revolves around schemes and identity. Early in the season, teams are still trying to figure out their identity. They may be experimenting with different lineups or schemes, and they may not be as familiar with their opponents. This can lead to more mistakes and more opportunities for underdogs to win.
Of course, there are still upsets that happen later in the season. However, the chances of an upset happening decrease as the season goes on. This is because teams become more settled and they have a better understanding of their opponents.
Are all NFL Upset Picks Created Equally?
Some NFL upsets are more significant than others. Some upsets are more surprising than others. For example, the Jags’ upset of the New England Patriots we mentioned earlier in the 2018 AFC Championship Game was one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. The Jaguars were 10-point underdogs, and they had never beaten the Patriots in the playoffs before. Let alone beat Tom Brady!
While upsets during the last week of the season may not even really be upsets at all. During the last week of the season teams may be resting their starters for the playoffs or teams may be playing for draft position.
Tips for Shopping Odds on Upsets
Here are some tips for shopping odds for upsets:
- Compare odds from different sportsbooks: The odds for NFL upsets can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. It is important to compare odds from different sportsbooks before placing a bet.
- Look for sportsbooks with competitive odds: When comparing odds, look for sportsbooks with competitive odds. This means that the odds should be close to the true probability of the event happening.
- Consider the sportsbook’s promotions: Some sportsbooks offer promotions for betting on upsets. These promotions can increase your potential winnings.
- Be patient: It may take some time to find the best odds for an upset. Be patient and don’t be afraid to shop around for the best deal.
- Pay attention to the line movement: The line movement is the change in the odds for an event over time. If the line is moving in favor of the underdog, it means that more people are betting on the underdog. The underdog being favored could be a sign that it is a good value bet.
- Follow the news: It is important to follow the news leading up to an NFL game. This will help you stay up-to-date on any injuries or other factors that could affect the outcome of the game.
What was the Biggest NFL Upset?
The biggest NFL upset is considered to be Super Bowl III, when the New York Jets, an American Football League (AFL) team, upset the Baltimore Colts, a National Football League (NFL) team, by a score of 16-7. The Jets were 17-point underdogs, and the game was played at the Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida.
There were a number of reasons why the Jets were able to pull off the upset. First, they had a strong defense that was led by Joe Namath, the Jets’ quarterback. Namath had guaranteed a Jets victory before the game, which added to the pressure on the Colts. Second, the Jets had a good running game, which helped to control the clock and keep the Colts’ offense off the field. Third, the Colts made a number of mistakes, including turnovers, which the Jets capitalized on.
Super Bowl III is considered to be one of the biggest upsets in sports history, and it helped to legitimize the AFL as a major professional football league. It also helped to usher in the era of the Super Bowl, which has become one of the most popular sporting events in the world.
Need More Football Data?
At Picks for Tonight we have everything you need to have a great week gambling on the NFL so check out everything else we have to offer:
NFL Computer Picks: Check out our NFL computer picks! They are based on a variety of factors, including historical data, current trends, and expert analysis. I’m confident that you’ll find them to be helpful in making your betting decisions.
NFL Prop Picks: Check out our NFL prop picks! We’ve done the research and analysis, so you don’t have to. We’re confident that our picks will give you a chance to win big money.
NFL 1st Half Picks: Check out our NFL 1st half picks, we’ve done the research and analysis, so you don’t have to. We’re confident that our picks will give you a chance to win big money.
College Football Computer Picks: Check out our College Football Computer Picks. Our computer model uses a variety of factors to analyze each game, and we’re confident that our picks will give you a chance to win big money.
College Football Upset Picks: Check out our College Football Upset Picks! We’ve identified a few games where we think the underdog has a good chance of winning. These picks are based on our analysis of the matchups, injuries, and recent trends.
College Football Line Movement: Check out our College Football Line Movement Tracker! It’s a great way to see how the betting lines are moving for upcoming games. This information can help you make more informed betting decisions.
Superbook Sportsbook Review: Check out our SuperBook sportsbook review! We’ve put together a comprehensive review of this popular sportsbook, covering everything from its betting options to its customer service.